Our
country took austerity measures in such a way to ensure payment of debt over
other things while greece did not do so. And to an extent, economy is like a
thermometer one has to cure the disease to bring down the fever
What explains their stance of not paying
debt over other things sir?
It
requires a full discussion on greece's economy
The
first striking thing is that Greece ran a sizable current account deficit that
grew from 6.6% of GDP in 2000 to 15.5% of GDP with most of the increase coming
in the second half of the decade. A current account deficit basically arises
from increases in import costs over export earnings. It is symptomatic of an
excess of consumption over income. Greece financed this consumption boom not by
drawing down domestic (public and private) savings or gross foreign exchange
reserves of the central bank but through the contracting of external debt which
swelled from a manageable 73% of GDP in 2000 to close to 160% of GDP by the end
of the decade.
If
debt was used to finance growth enhancing projects such as investments in
health and education, infrastructure, or other investments with a rate of
return higher than the cost of the debt, an indebted country could very well
remain solvent.
Even
as Greece’s debt burden grew ever more onerous, its burgeoning underground
economy fueled massive illicit financial flows from the country. Based on
well-established economic models, Global Financial Integrity (GFI) estimates
that over the past decade ending 2009, Greece lost an estimated US$160 billion
through unrecorded transfers through its balance of payments. Interesting,
according to study conducted at GFI, there were illicit inflows into Greece
which approximately totaled US$96 billion through the misinvoicing of trade
transactions, probably as a result of import duty evasion and smuggling.
The
shoddy quality of Greek data on balance of payments, external debt, and
national accounts mean that the estimates of illicit flows may be understated.
In fact, an IMF assessment of Greece’s statistical system in 2002/03 gave high
marks for professional integrity, accuracy, and reliability when in fact the
Greeks have been fudging their books for a long time.
I
sincerely wish our country does not lose integrity like the greek. But you
never know till the bubble bursts.
Greek
crisis in a nut shell for the laymen :
The
endeavour below is to - explain a very complicated circular trading (round
tripping algorithm) nonsense that became a crisis - in a simple way..
MARY
is the proprietor of a bar in Dublin. She realises that virtually all of her
customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can no longer afford to
patronise her bar – she will go broke.
To
solve this problem, she comes up with a new marketing plan that allows her
customers to drink now, but pay later.
She
keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers
loans).
Word
gets around about Mary's 'drink now, pay later' marketing strategy and, as a
result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Mary's bar.
Soon
she has the largest sales volume for any bar in Dublin — all is starting to
look rosy.
By
providing her customers freedom from immediate payment demands Mary gets no
resistance when, at regular intervals, she substantially increases her prices
for wine and beer, the most consumed beverages.
Consequently,
Mary's gross sales volume increases massively.
A
young and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognises that these
customer debts constitute valuable future assets and increases Mary's borrowing
limit.
He
sees no reason for any undue concern, since he has the debts of the unemployed
alcoholics as collateral.
At
the bank's corporate headquarters, expert traders figure a way to make huge
commissions, and transform these customer loans into Drinkbonds and Alkibonds.
These securities are then bundled and traded on international security markets.
The
new investors don't really understand that the securities being sold to them as
'AAA' secured bonds are really the debts of unemployed alcoholics. They have had
a 'rating house' certify they are of good quality.
Nevertheless,
the bond prices continuously climb, and the securities soon become the
hottest-selling items for some of the nation's leading brokerage houses.
One
day, even though the bond prices are still climbing, a risk manager at the
original local bank decides that the time has come to demand payment on the
debts incurred by the drinkers at Mary's bar. He so informs Mary.
Mary
then demands payment from her alcoholic patrons, but, being unemployed
alcoholics, they cannot pay back their drinking debts.
Since
Mary cannot fulfil her loan obligations she is forced into bankruptcy. So she
now is broke.
The
bar closes and the 11 employees lose their jobs.
Overnight,
Drinkbonds and Alkibonds drop in price by 90%.
The
collapsed bond asset value destroys the bank's liquidity and prevents it from
issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in the community.
The
suppliers of Mary's bar had granted her generous payment extensions and had
invested their firms' pension funds in the various Bond securities. They find
they are now faced with having to write-off her bad debt and with losing over
90% of the presumed value of the bonds.
Her
wine supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing the doors on a family business
that had endured for three generations. Her beer supplier is taken over by a
competitor, who immediately closes the local plant and lays off 150 workers.
Fortunately
though, the bank, the brokerage houses and their respective executives are
saved and bailed out by a multi-billion euro, no-strings attached cash infusion
from their cronies in government.
The
funds required for this bailout are obtained by new taxes levied on employed,
middle-class, non-drinkers who have never been in Mary's bar. How do you think
they will vote for the "referendum" ? With a "yes" or a
"no" ???
Now,
thats economics in 2015.
Why do external financing agencies give
loan to a country that is not managing its economy?
when
the going is good, all things happen. when it gets bad, you know the
difference.
The
sum total of my understanding of economics is that if there is addition of
money without addition of value, there is bound to be a bubble burst somewhere
some time.
Sir if greece quits EU...what will be the
impact on other EU member?
EU
will lose money - may be have to write off debts
But
it may get away with a finger amputation rather than lose a limb
Forecasting
external debt default is an extremely complicated task. While economic models
often successfully identify countries with external debt crisis after the fact,
they remain poor predictors of one. This is one of the issues in international
economics.
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